01 // CAPTURE THE CLAIM
Every thesis starts with the original words.
BeliefState
SOURCE RECORDRJC / NVDA
CaptureEvidenceThesesOutcomes SAMPLE_RECORD // RJC_NVDA_01● CAPTURED
ORIGINAL SOURCE
RJCRJC Capital@RJC_Capital · X
“We reduced exposure, but have not invalidated the long-term AI infrastructure thesis.”
Exact quoteAuthor contextRevision locked
THESIS INTERPRETATION
AI infrastructure demand outruns deployment capacity.
NVDA_INFRA
CONVICTIONCATALYSTRISK
HUMAN REVIEW
InterpretationACCEPT
Confidence0.98
HistoryAPPEND
THESIS_CHANGE → RELEASED
Exact source spansAppend-only historyHuman reviewMarket-relative outcomes
- Selected posts and newsletters arrive with author, timestamp, revision, and exact quote intact.
- Direction, conviction, horizon, catalysts, risks, and invalidation conditions become explicit.
- Every interpretation waits for review. New evidence appends a change instead of rewriting the past.
02 // FOLLOW THE CHANGE
See conviction change without losing the why.
One timeline preserves the original call, every catalyst shift, each correction, and the exact evidence behind it.
BeliefState
THESIS RECORDRJC / NVDA
CaptureEvidenceThesesOutcomes RJC / NVDAACTIVEUPDATED JUL 29
INITIATECONFIRMSHIFTREDUCE
01APR 14 // INITIATED
AI infrastructure
High convictionRJC Capital starts a six-month NVDA thesis and names supply and capex as risks.
MAY 23 // CONVICTION UP
Demand confirmed
High convictionNetworking revenue and forward supply commitments strengthen the original view.
JUN 18 // CATALYST SHIFT
Power becomes the clock
Thesis stays activeThe catalyst moves from GPU shipments to power and interconnect deployment.
JUL 29 // EXPOSURE DOWN
Risk-reward changes
Medium convictionWeaker capex expectations reduce exposure without invalidating the long-term thesis.
Exact source spansAppend-only historyHuman reviewMarket-relative outcomes
